You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 303, on Friday, November 22nd at 10:00 GMT.
The highlighted topics will include:
Russia’s Terms for Ceasefire: No NATO, Territorial Gains and Security Guarantees for Ukraine
Vladimir Putin is open to discussing a Ukraine ceasefire with President-elect Donald Trump, but he demands major territorial concessions, including Ukraine abandoning its NATO ambitions. While Moscow controls significant parts of Ukraine, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Putin is willing to freeze the conflict along these lines. However, he is adamant that Russia’s territorial gains be recognized and any agreement should reflect the “realities” on the ground. Putin insists that Ukraine’s neutrality is essential for good relations and warns against NATO’s involvement.
Putin’s conditions for a ceasefire include Ukraine limiting its military forces, agreeing to security guarantees and maintaining the use of the Russian language. Despite the potential for a ceasefire, achieving a broader peace agreement would be challenging, given the stark differences between Russia’s and Ukraine’s positions. Moscow claims the conflict is a result of NATO’s expansion and Ukraine’s alignment with Western powers, while Kyiv insists on reclaiming all occupied territories, including Crimea.
Putin is confident in his position, claiming Russia is “winning” the war. He is not open to negotiating the future of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. While Trump’s return to the White House might facilitate negotiations, both sides remain firm in their demands, suggesting a prolonged conflict ahead if a compromise is not reached.
Western Embassies Close in Kyiv as Tensions Escalate with Russian Retaliation Threats
The US Embassy in Kyiv temporarily closed on Wednesday, citing credible warnings of an imminent “significant air attack” on the Ukrainian capital. This decision came after the United States received specific information indicating a high likelihood of missile strikes. Italy, Spain and Greece also closed their embassies in Kyiv, following the US lead. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reassured that it remains in close contact with international partners regarding the evolving security situation. Air raid sirens sounded briefly in Kyiv, urging citizens to seek shelter. The embassy also advised US citizens in Kyiv to be prepared to shelter in place and to stock up on essentials, as Russian attacks continue to target civilian infrastructure, causing fears of power and water outages.
This heightened caution follows Ukraine’s recent use of US-supplied ATACMS missiles to strike Russian territory, marking a significant escalation in the war. In response, Russian officials have warned that this move could lead to severe retaliation, including lowering the threshold for nuclear strikes. Additionally, South Korea’s intelligence confirmed that North Korea has sent artillery systems to Russia, further complicating the conflict. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue to control about a fifth of Ukrainian territory, including critical regions like Crimea, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia. As the war approaches its 1001st day, concerns mount over the stability of Western support for Ukraine, especially as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House in January.
Aid Disrupted in Gaza, Israel Intensifies Strikes in Lebanon and Iran Warns of Decisive Response
The UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) reported a devastating attack on a food aid convoy in Gaza on Saturday. A convoy of 109 trucks carrying essential food supplies was violently looted, with 97 of the trucks losing their cargo after drivers were forced at gunpoint to unload their aid. The attack occurred after passing through the Kerem Shalom crossing, with witnesses reporting masked men throwing grenades. UNRWA officials described the incident as a complete breakdown of civil order in Gaza, further worsening the already dire food shortages affecting two million people. A UN report has warned that famine is imminent in the northern Gaza Strip, where humanitarian access has been severely hindered by Israeli ground offensives and the escalating violence in the region. Although the Hamas-run interior ministry claimed to have killed 20 looters in retaliation, UNRWA condemned both the looting and Israel’s role in preventing the safe delivery of aid. The agency accused Israel of disregarding its legal obligations under international law.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces have escalated airstrikes across Lebanon, particularly targeting Hezbollah strongholds in the southern region, the eastern Bekaa Valley and the southern suburbs of Beirut. These airstrikes are part of an ongoing campaign against Hezbollah, which has been engaging in hostilities with Israeli forces since late September. Israel’s attacks aim not only at Hezbollah military infrastructure but also at strategic targets like air defense systems, seeking to pressure the Lebanese government and Hezbollah into agreeing to a ceasefire. Despite Israel’s efforts, Hezbollah’s attacks continue, resulting in both Israeli civilian and military casualties. The UN and the US have pushed for a ceasefire, but key issues remain unresolved, particularly regarding Israel’s right to intervene in Lebanon if the agreement is violated. The Lebanese government has expressed concern over Israel’s demand for continued military intervention.
In a broader regional context, Iran has warned of a “decisive response” to Israeli airstrikes on its military sites, including air defense systems, following missile attacks on Israel earlier this year. Tehran has also threatened retaliation if Israel targets its nuclear facilities, citing a UN resolution that prohibits military attacks on peaceful nuclear sites. Iran has reiterated its commitment to defending its sovereignty and expressed support for regional militias as part of its broader regional strategy. Diplomatic efforts to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) are ongoing, but tensions surrounding Iran’s nuclear program continue to escalate. Israel has raised concerns that Iran’s nuclear facilities are becoming increasingly vulnerable to military action, heightening fears of further escalation in the region.
Tens of Thousands of Māori Protesters Call for Rejection of Treaty Bill in New Zealand
In New Zealand, tens of thousands of people marched to Parliament in Wellington as part of the Hīkoi mō te Tiriti, a peaceful protest against the controversial Treaty Principles Bill. The bill, introduced by David Seymour of the right-wing ACT Party, seeks to reinterpret the Treaty of Waitangi, signed in 1840 between British colonizers and Māori chiefs, by defining its principles for all New Zealanders rather than exclusively for Māori. Critics argue the bill would undermine Māori rights and co-governance agreements, while supporters believe it promotes equality and addresses racial divisions.
The Hīkoi began nine days earlier in New Zealand’s far north and culminated outside Parliament, with an estimated 42,000 participants, making it one of the largest protests in the country’s history. Protesters, including both Māori and non-Māori New Zealanders, voiced their opposition to the bill, emphasizing solidarity, unity and the preservation of Māori rights. Māori Party leaders and Indigenous activists expressed concerns that the bill would erode the protections guaranteed by the Treaty of Waitangi and reinforce social and economic disparities faced by Māori communities.
The bill has sparked political tensions, with New Zealand’s National Party stating it will not support the bill beyond its second reading. Despite the bill’s likely failure, the protests have reignited debates about Indigenous rights and New Zealand’s commitment to upholding the Treaty principles in a multicultural society. The Hīkoi has become a significant moment in the ongoing struggle for Māori rights in New Zealand.
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