Global Crisis Watch 306

You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 306, on Friday, December 12th at 10:00 GMT.

The highlighted topics will include:

Syrian Rebel Victory Sparks Israeli Strikes and Regional Tensions

Syria is undergoing major changes after rebel forces overthrew Bashar al-Assad, with celebrations marking the fall of the longtime dictator. Amid this upheaval, Israel has launched nearly 500 strikes across Syria in just two days, targeting key military assets, including airfields, missile systems and the Syrian naval fleet. Israel’s Defense Forces (IDF) conducted over 350 airstrikes and 130 additional strikes during ground operations, aiming to destroy weapons and prevent them from falling into the hands of extremists. The attacks also targeted chemical weapons stockpiles and long-range missile sites. Israeli forces have also advanced into the demilitarized buffer zone between Syria and the Golan Heights, raising tensions with neighboring countries.

Lebanon is on high alert, reinforcing border security to prevent illegal crossings from Syria. Although no major refugee movements have been reported, Lebanon hosts around 1.5 million Syrian refugees, and authorities are closely monitoring the situation. The United States has also expressed support for a Syrian government that respects minority rights and prevents the country from being used as a base for terrorism.

In Syria, rebel-linked Mohammad Al-Bashir has been appointed to oversee the country’s transition, with a caretaker government expected to hold power until March. The US has laid out four key principles for the new government, including securing chemical weapons and respecting the rights of minorities. Iran, a former Assad ally, has accused the US and Israel of orchestrating the regime’s downfall. Meanwhile, Israel continues to conduct strikes to neutralize Syria’s military capabilities, citing concerns over regional security. The situation remains fluid, with both regional and international powers jockeying for influence in the aftermath of Assad’s fall.

Taliban Refugee Minister Killed in Suicide Bombing in Kabul

A suicide bombing in Kabul on Wednesday killed Khalil Haqqani, the Taliban’s refugee minister, making it the highest-profile attack since the Taliban regained control of Afghanistan three years ago. Haqqani, the uncle of Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani, was targeted while signing documents inside the Ministry of Refugees. The bomber, disguised as a visitor, detonated the explosive, killing Haqqani and six others. The Taliban has not yet claimed responsibility, but ISIS affiliates, who are in conflict with the Taliban, have previously conducted attacks in Afghanistan.

Haqqani’s death underscores the ongoing tensions within the Taliban, particularly between factions led by his family’s Haqqani network and other Taliban leaders. The Haqqani network, a key faction within the Taliban, operates with its own objectives, separate from other Taliban leaders in Kandahar who are more resistant to Western engagement. Khalil Haqqani himself had been designated a global terrorist by the US in 2011 and remained a controversial figure due to his involvement in the network’s militant activities.

This attack highlights the continued instability in Afghanistan and the internal struggles within the Taliban, despite its return to power. The broader implications for Afghanistan’s political future, as well as the impact on the Taliban’s governance, remain unclear.

At Least 127 Dead in Sudan’s Two-Day Airstrikes and Shelling Attacks

In the latest escalation of Sudan’s ongoing conflict, at least 127 people, predominantly civilians, were killed in bombardments by opposing forces on Monday and Tuesday. The conflict between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has intensified as ceasefire efforts have stalled. The army has conducted airstrikes in RSF-controlled regions, while the RSF has carried out raids and artillery attacks on villages. Both sides have targeted densely populated areas.

In North Darfur, eight barrel bombs hit the market in Kabkabiya, killing over 100 people and injuring many more. The army has been targeting towns in the region to control al-Fashir, its last stronghold in North Darfur. While the army denied responsibility for the attack on Kabkabiya, they justified their airstrikes on the grounds of military necessity. The RSF did not comment on the incident. Images of mass graves and disturbing video footage of the aftermath showed bodies, burning wreckage and desperate rescue efforts. An activist confirmed that the majority of the victims were civilians, with only a few soldiers in the market.

On Tuesday, RSF artillery struck an army-controlled area in Omdurman, Khartoum state, killing at least 20 people, including 14 bus passengers. The state government reported 65 fatalities. Meanwhile, in North Darfur’s Zamzam camp, where famine has been declared, shelling on Tuesday resulted in seven additional deaths. With more than 30 million people in need of humanitarian aid and 12 million displaced, the crisis continues to worsen.

Taiwan Warns of Largest Chinese Maritime Deployment in Decades

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has reported that China has launched its largest regional maritime deployment in decades, with heightened military activity around Taiwan and the Western Pacific. This increase in Chinese presence follows Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s unofficial stops in Hawaii and Guam earlier this month, which angered Beijing. Since Monday, Taiwan has been on high alert, expecting military drills after Beijing reacted to Lai’s visit and the United States’ recent approval of arms sales to Taiwan.

The Chinese deployment includes an “astonishing” number of naval and coast guard vessels, with nearly 90 ships reported in waters stretching from Japan’s southern islands to the South China Sea. Taiwan officials believe this vast military movement is aimed at not only pressuring Taiwan but also blocking external forces, like Japan and the Philippines, from intervening in the event of a conflict. Chinese military aircraft have also been detected around Taiwan, with 47 jets reported in a 24-hour period before Tuesday morning.

While China has not confirmed any large-scale military exercises, Taiwan’s military authorities are concerned that the operations represent a shift in strategy, aimed at reinforcing China’s claim over Taiwan. The Chinese military’s presence around Taiwan is the most significant since the 1990s, raising concerns about the potential for escalation. Beijing continues to assert that Taiwan is part of its territory, despite Taiwan’s rejection of this claim and its commitment to maintaining its sovereignty.

Taiwan’s government has responded by conducting war-preparedness drills and publicly disclosing Chinese military movements to raise international awareness of the growing threat. The situation remains tense, with analysts warning that China may continue its military coercion, further complicating the region’s security dynamics.

Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.