You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 310, on Friday, January 10th at 10:00 GMT.
The highlighted topics will include:
Trump and Musk’s Rhetoric Becomes Increasingly Unstable
Donald Trump’s increasingly erratic rhetoric on global issues, including remarks in the last week about annexing Greenland, taking control of the Panama Canal and making Canada a US state, are becoming increasingly worrying to international leaders. His threats to use military and economic force to control key strategic regions are a continuation of his first term policies, though stated with an even greater level of confidence (‘Tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary’).
Meanwhile, Elon Musk has continued to take an aggressive stance to European politicians in general and the UK government in particular. Musk has claimed that UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer (who was Attorney-General at the time), was involved in a cover-up concerning the systematic grooming of under-age girls by groups of British-Pakistani men. Musk also claimed that Jess Phillips, the Labour government’s Minister for safeguarding and violence against women and girls, was a “rape genocide apologist” because she pushed back on calls for a national inquiry into child sexual exploitation in Oldham, a town near Manchester.
Earlier this week he published a poll on his X account asking whether the US should invade the UK and “liberate” it from its “tyrannical government”, and on Thursday he was reported to have been discussing with allies the possibility of removing Starmer as prime minister before
His interventions have also put a spotlight on his increasing role in European politics, where his support for far-right movements has raised concerns about his influence on political discourse.
US Sanctions Sudan’s RSF Leader, Declares Genocide in Ongoing Civil War
The United States has formally determined that Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have committed genocide during the ongoing civil war and has imposed sanctions on the group’s leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, and several businesses associated with the RSF. The RSF, which has been engaged in a violent conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since April 2023, has been accused of targeting non-Arab ethnic groups, particularly the Massalit, in the western region of Darfur. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the RSF and allied militias have systematically murdered men, boys and infants based on ethnicity, while women and girls from certain groups have been subjected to rape and other forms of sexual violence.
The sanctions specifically target Dagalo and his family, barring them from traveling to the US and freezing any assets they hold. Additionally, seven RSF-linked companies in the UAE, along with individuals involved in weapons procurement for the RSF, have also been sanctioned. These actions are part of the US’s effort to isolate the RSF, which has been attempting to enhance its legitimacy and expand its control in Sudan. While the UAE is cited as a key international backer of the RSF, it has denied any involvement in supporting the paramilitary group.
The US has emphasized that while the RSF bears primary responsibility for the atrocities, both the RSF and the SAF share blame for the ongoing conflict and suffering in Sudan. The war has resulted in a massive humanitarian crisis, with over 30 million people in need of aid and almost 650,000 facing famine. Despite the US sanctions, experts warn that the situation may worsen in 2025, with increased displacement, hunger and disease outbreaks expected.
End of Russian Gas Transit Through Ukraine Signals Major Shift in Europe’s Energy Landscape
On January 1, 2025, the end of Russian gas transit through Ukraine brought a significant change to Central Europe’s energy landscape, marking the conclusion of Russia’s long-standing dominance in Europe’s energy market. After months of anticipation, the last remaining European customers of Russian gas, including Austria and Slovakia, faced the reality of losing their supply routes as Ukraine refused to extend a crucial gas transit agreement with Russia. To mitigate the impact, gas flows to these countries have now been redirected through Germany and Italy, which have ramped up their shipments to make up for.
The end of Russian gas transit represents a critical turning point in Europe’s energy transition. Ukraine, which had been a transit hub for Russian gas, views the halting of flows as a victory in reducing its dependence on Russia. European officials have prepared for such disruptions by increasing their LNG (liquefied natural gas) import capacity, which has ensured that the region’s energy infrastructure remains resilient. While the immediate impact on prices has been limited, the move underscores Europe’s shift toward greater energy independence, including the diversification of its gas sources away from Russia.
The cessation of Russian gas via Ukraine, which supplied around 15 bcm in 2023, signals not just a change in supply routes but a loss of significant financial revenue for Russia, which will face an estimated $5 billion shortfall in gas sales. Ukraine, which stands to lose up to $1 billion annually in transit fees, will also be impacted by an increase in domestic gas transmission tariffs to offset the financial blow. For Central Europe, this marks the final step in breaking Russia’s grip on its energy supply, a transition accelerated by the ongoing war in Ukraine.
Tech Titans Embrace Trump’s Second Term as Key to Navigating the Future
Several prominent tech leaders, including Tim Cook, Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, Sundar Pichai and Sergey Brin have changed their approach towards US President-elect Donald Trump after his 2024 election victory. Historically, many of these CEOs had tense relationships with Trump, but now, they are increasingly reaching out to him in hopes of securing government contracts, favorable policies and regulatory influence.
Elon Musk, a significant donor to Trump’s campaign, has become one of his most influential advisors, as well as his pick to lead the newly-created DOGE – Department of Government Efficiency, with billions of dollars at stake in ventures like Tesla, SpaceX and xAI. Other tech CEOs, including Zuckerberg, who once banned Trump from Meta platforms, have shifted their stance. Zuckerberg’s Meta is now ending its third-party fact-checking program, aligning more with Trump’s approach. Tim Cook, CEO of Apple, has worked with Trump on business interests, despite opposing key political issues like tariffs on China.
Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, though not a long-time Trump ally, has expressed confidence in the president’s ability to handle technology policy. Sundar Pichai and Sergey Brin of Google also met with Trump, with Pichai noting that Trump could have a positive impact on artificial intelligence policy. These leaders have all donated $1 million to Trump’s Inauguration Fund, a sure-fire way of getting in a president-elect’s good books.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has also expressed willingness to meet with Trump, emphasizing his readiness to support the administration’s efforts. These interactions represent a major shift from the tech industry’s previous opposition to Trump’s administration with tech leaders now seeking collaboration with the incoming president to help navigate the complexities of the rapidly evolving tech landscape.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.