Global Crisis Watch 318

You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 318, on Friday, March 7th at 10:00 GMT.

The highlighted topics will include:

Trump’s Ukraine Gambit: Confrontation, Chaos and a Questionable Peace Offer

In a tumultuous week that is typical of the Trump presidency, tensions between the United States and Ukraine reached a boiling point as President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance engaged in a heated Oval Office confrontation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The explosive meeting, broadcast live, saw Trump berate Zelenskyy for not showing enough gratitude for US support and pressure him to enter peace talks with Russia. The clash resulted in Trump abruptly canceling the rest of Zelenskyy’s visit, including a planned press conference and a rare minerals deal.

Trump’s aggressive position reflects a major shift in US foreign policy, with his administration appearing to distance itself from Ukraine and align more closely with Russian interests. The decision to pause military aid – previously a critical component of Ukraine’s defense – has left Kyiv vulnerable, particularly in regions under heavy Russian attack. While European allies have stepped up support, they lack the resources to fully compensate for the loss of US assistance.

Following the confrontation, Senator Lindsey Graham suggested Zelenskyy should resign if he refused to negotiate. Meanwhile, Trump claimed that Zelenskyy’s reluctance to engage in peace talks showed he was not ready for a deal. European leaders strongly backed Ukraine, with officials from Germany, France and Poland reaffirming their commitment.

Days later, Trump read a letter supposedly from Zelenskyy, stating Ukraine was “ready to come to the negotiating table” and praising Trump’s “strong leadership.” However, Ukraine has not confirmed the letter’s authenticity. While Trump claims Russia is open to peace, the details remain unclear. The confrontation marks a turning point in US-Ukraine relations, raising concerns about Kyiv’s ability to sustain its defense and the extensive repercussions for European security.

Trump Rejects Arab Leaders’ $53B Gaza Plan, Insists on US Takeover

Arab leaders have endorsed an Egyptian-led $53 billion plan to rebuild Gaza, but US President Donald Trump and Israel have outright rejected the proposal. Instead, Trump remains committed to his controversial “Gaza Riviera” vision, which involves displacing Palestinians and placing the enclave under US control.

The Arab-backed plan, announced at a Cairo summit, aims to rebuild Gaza over five years without forcing residents to leave. It proposes a temporary governing body of independent Palestinian technocrats under the supervision of the Palestinian Authority (PA). Hamas has conditionally accepted the plan but insists on having input in the governing committee.

Israel and the US dismissed the proposal, arguing it does not address Gaza’s devastation or Hamas’ military presence. Israeli officials maintain that Hamas must be immediately disarmed, while Trump’s administration claims the Arab plan is outdated and unrealistic. Washington insists that Gaza must be rebuilt without Hamas’ influence.

The reconstruction plan, which envisions ports, an airport and economic revitalization, will require financial backing from Gulf states. However, disagreements persist over Hamas’ role and the PA’s ability to govern effectively. While Arab nations oppose the forced displacement of Palestinians, Trump’s administration insists on a different vision, reinforcing tensions over Gaza’s post-war future.

Gaza Ceasefire Threatened as Israel Suspends Aid Over Stalled Talks

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is at risk after Israel blocked humanitarian aid to Gaza, citing Hamas’ rejection of a proposed six-week extension that did not include a commitment to end the war. Hamas has condemned the move as “blackmail,” insisting on a full Israeli withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire before agreeing to further negotiations.

The initial ceasefire, which began on January 19, saw the release of 38 Israeli hostages in exchange for 1,737 Palestinian prisoners and an increase in humanitarian aid. The next phase was supposed to focus on ending hostilities, withdrawing Israeli troops and securing the release of all remaining hostages, but negotiations have stalled. Israel now seeks to extend the first phase under different terms, a proposal Hamas refuses.

Israel’s decision to block aid has drawn international criticism. Egypt and Qatar, key mediators, condemned the move, while aid organizations warn of worsening shortages. Food prices in Gaza have doubled, and essential supplies, including fuel for hospitals, are rapidly depleting. The UN has warned that at least 80 community kitchens may shut down if the blockade continues.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces domestic pressure to resume military operations, while hostage families urge US President Donald Trump to negotiate a single-phase deal for all captives’ release. As diplomatic efforts waver, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza worsens, leaving millions of civilians at risk.

Taiwan Looks to Ukraine for Wartime Resilience Strategies

Taiwan is studying Ukraine’s resilience in wartime as it strengthens crisis preparedness amid growing Chinese threats. China claims Taiwan as its territory and has increased military pressure, including large-scale war games. To prepare for potential conflict, Taiwan is looking at how businesses in Ukraine continued operating despite Russia’s invasion, ensuring essential services remained available.

A senior Taiwan security official stated that Ukraine’s experience demonstrates how private businesses can support government and societal resilience. Taiwan is considering integrating supermarkets into its emergency supply network and using taxis for medical emergencies when healthcare systems are overwhelmed. The government is working to connect Taiwanese firms with Ukrainian counterparts to enhance crisis preparedness.

Taiwan is also upgrading its air-raid alert and shelter systems, taking lessons from Northern European and Baltic states. This week, a closed-door workshop in Taipei, attended by Taiwanese officials and diplomats from the US, Japan and Australia, focused on stockpiling, civil defense and cyber resilience.

Andy Hunder, head of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, emphasized the importance of protecting online infrastructure from cyberattacks. He pointed out that before Russia’s missile strikes, Ukraine faced cyber operations aimed at crippling key services. Hunder highlighted the need for Taiwan to ensure banking, technology, retail and food supply continuity, stating that modern warfare requires secure cloud-based systems to maintain economic stability.

Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.